Is there hope for missile defense after all? During his campaign, president-elect Barack Obama famously promised to "cut investments in unproven missile defense systems" - a message that many observers took to mean that missile defenses would become an endangered species in an Obama administration. Now, however, there is at least a glimmer of hope that missile defense could survive (if not thrive) under the new White House.
First, there is the growing worldwide ballistic missile threat. Countries such as Iran and North Korea are making major investments in their strategic arsenals in an effort to acquire asymmetric capabilities by which to threaten other nations and the United States. So are Russia and China, which have both demonstrated qualitative leaps in the number and sophistication of their ballistic missiles - leaps which analysts have cautioned have not been matched by similar investments on the part of the United States. These developments were surely covered by Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell during his first classified top-level briefing to the president-elect on November 6th.
Then there is Russia's recent provocation. Less than a day after Obama's electoral win, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced in his first-ever State of the State address that his government is planning to deploy short-range missiles in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, where they would target the emerging U.S. missile defense system in Eastern Europe. Needless to say, if carried out such a move would mark a major escalation of tensions between Russia and its former satellites - and, by extension, between Moscow and Washington.
All of which suggests that Obama's strident pre-election stance on missile defense might end up being softened over time, as the new President begins to grapple with the need to maintain U.S. strategic superiority and defend against growing threats abroad. That, at least, is the hope.