By now, most people have heard of Starlink. Since it was launched five years ago, the satellite firm pioneered by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk has become a bona fide telecommunications phenomenon, with over 3 million subscribers and more than 6,000 deployed satellites. But it is in the geopolitical arena where Starlink is arguably having its largest impact, because the company's ability to provide greater internet connectivity for captive populations and embattled nations has the potential to reshape the struggle for freedom worldwide. Ukraine provides a case in point. In the two-and-a-half years since the start of Russia's war of aggression, Starlink has provided reliable satellite-based connectivity that has played a major role in allowing Kyiv to battle back against the Kremlin. That, moreover, might be just the tip of the iceberg. Starlink has been floated as a tool to empower Iranian dissidents, assisted humanitarian organizations operating in war zones like Gaza, and has been suggested as an antidote to growing authoritarian control of the Internet. But Starlink could soon face some stiff competition—specifically, from the People's Republic of China (PRC).

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Since the start of its war of aggression against Ukraine some two-and-a-half years ago, the Kremlin has worked diligently to shape the domestic narrative surrounding the conflict. Among other things, it has done so by promoting a vision of a patriotic struggle against fascism, deploying extensive domestic censorshipmeasures, obscuring damning figures about battlefield casualties and passing new laws that effectively criminalize any critical coverage of the conflict. Cumulatively, this campaign has succeeded in maintaining a comparatively high level of support from ordinary Russians for a fight that has lasted much longer and exacted a much heavier toll than authorities in Moscow originally advertised. But since mid-July, Ukraine's unexpected incursion into Russia's Kursk region — and Moscow's inability to marshal a serious response to it — has shaken public sentiment within Russia. By just how much? This is documented in a new study by OpenMinds, a Ukrainian data analytics and communications firm. By extensively parsing Russian social media and news outlets, it chronicles that the events in Kursk have impacted popular support for the war among ordinary Russians, as well as increased their dissatisfaction with the Kremlin.

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Listen to Russian officials these days, and you're liable to hear a decidedly triumphant tone. Two-and-a-half years into the Kremlin's war of aggression against neighboring Ukraine, its officials seem more and more convinced that their country's eventual victory is inevitable. That could be because last year's long-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive ended up largely fizzling, failing to evict Russia from the parts of eastern Ukraine it had managed to seize. Or maybe it's because America's upcoming election, and the political momentum of Republican candidate Donald Trump, could prompt a seismic shift in U.S. support for Ukraine's struggle. Whatever the cause, this sense of momentum has led the Kremlin to rebuff recent Ukrainian peace overtures, and to stake out a maximalist position as a prerequisite for any negotiations with Kyiv. But Moscow's triumphalism masks a more sobering reality—by almost every empirical measure, Russia's war of choice has proven ruinous for the Kremlin.

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Since the start of its war on Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has experienced a massive population exodus. Ideological objectors, political opponents, and those simply seeking to avoid conscription have sought the shelter of other nations. Accurate data about this cohort, however, is in short supply, complicated both by Kremlin propaganda and by the fact that some of these exiles have since made their way back to Russia. A new study by The Bell, a leading Russian opposition news outlet, suggests the ranks of those who fled Russia and still remain abroad is significantly larger than commonly understood.

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On Sunday, Israel carried out a long-range aerial attack on the Yemeni port of Hodeidah. The air strike, a retaliation for a drone incursion into Tel Aviv a day earlier that left one dead, killed at least six and wounded scores more in a signal that Israel was fully prepared to hit back at the country's Houthi rebels. But the Israeli retaliation also did something more: it highlighted a way to turn the tables on what has, until now, been an enormously successful campaign of economic blackmail along one of the world's most vital waterways. Such an approach has been sorely lacking so far. Since mid-November, the Houthis have emerged as a major international menace, holding maritime commerce in the Red Sea at risk through repeated missile and drone strikes. Ostensibly, the ongoing campaign is a response to Israel's continuing military offensive in the Gaza Strip. But through it, the Yemeni militants – as well as their main benefactor, Iran – have gained significant leverage over the international community by holding global trade at risk.

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