In recent weeks, much to the chagrin of traditional allies in Europe, the Trump administration has rolled back American support for Ukraine and adopted a decidedly friendlier approach toward the Kremlin. That reversal, punctuated by a very-public Oval Office dust-up with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, is nothing short of a boon for Russian president Vladimir Putin, now increasingly grappling with the destabilizing domestic effects of his protracted war on Kyiv. Meanwhile, the new White House's penchant for deal-making is providing an opportunity for Russia to improve its position still further—by offering itself up as a diplomatic intermediary between Washington and Tehran. 

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When the Soviet Union collapsed nearly a quarter-century ago, it led to triumphalism about the "end of history" and the ultimate victory of liberal democracy over other forms of government. Since then, it's been a difficult couple of decades for global freedom. As governance watchdog Freedom House has diligently chronicled, democracy around the world has now declined for 20 straight years. Today, the most obvious examples of this backsliding can be found in Asia, where an increasingly assertive China is attempting to redraw the regional rules of the road, and in Europe, where Russian rubles and wan Western politicians have helped prompt the rise of illiberal parties. But nowhere is this backsliding more potentially consequential than in Africa, where the continent's 54 countries appear to be undergoing a pronounced drift away from democracy—with profound consequences for global geopolitics.

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When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his war of aggression against neighboring Ukraine in February 2022, it set off an unprecedented wave of Western economic pressure. That "shock and awe" campaign, orchestrated by the Biden administration and U.S. allies in Europe, was designed to ratchet up the costs of the war for the Kremlin via a raft of sanctions and other restrictions designed to isolate Russia from global markets. So far, though, Western pressure has proved to be less than meets the eye. For all of its public rhetoric to the contrary, Europe has failed to meaningfully wean itself off Russian energy, a key strategic vulnerability. In fact, the continent's dependence on Moscow has grown, as European imports of Russian natural gas actually rose from 2023 to 2024. And, despite early optimism about a mass exodus of commercial activity as a result of the war, hundreds of Western businesses (including prominent American firms like Guess, TGI Friday's, and Tupperware) still retain sizable stakes in the Russian market. As a result, although it definitely hasn't thrived, Russia's economy has managed to survive, even growing modestly over the past calendar year. For instance, wages for workers, especially those in the defense sector, have increased, while overall unemployment has decreased. This and other trends have fed official Russian triumphalism that the country will ultimately outlast the West, at least in economic terms. Yet, as the Ukraine conflict nears its third anniversary, evidence is mounting that the bill for the Kremlin's war of choice is finally coming due.

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When scholars look back at the foreign policy of the last administration, they're liable to conclude that the "Biden Doctrine," to the extent that there was one, wasn't an elaborate, ambitious and well-thought-out affair, the way some pundits have suggested. Rather, it was a series of tactical responses to world events — responses that were ultimately undermined by the White House's fear of adverse consequences.

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Over the past year, Israel's war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip has fundamentally upended the Jewish state's regional relationships—and brought down the curtain, at least temporarily, on Jerusalem's previously vibrant ties to the countries of the Abraham Accords. That, however, appears to be changing. This past November, the Kingdom of Morocco became the first Abraham Accords country to officially reaffirm its diplomatic ties with Israel, citing its Jewish heritage as justification. The announcement was a hopeful sign that the wave of normalization between Israel and the Muslim world, officially kicked off in 2020, has begun to show new signs of life.

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