When the second Trump administration takes office next month, it will face a thoroughly crowded Mideast agenda. Near-term priorities for the new White House include helping Israel to wind down its war in Gaza, resuscitating the Abraham Accords, and reviving a policy of "maximum pressure" against Iran. But arguably the most pressing item confronting Team Trump will be changing the status quo in the Red Sea. Yemen's Houthi rebels have wreaked havoc there for over a year, targeting maritime commerce with sporadic drone and missile attacks. The effects have been far-reaching. As a June 2024 report by the Defense Intelligence Agency spells out, more than 65 countries have been affected by the Houthi aggression so far, with over two dozen shipping companies being forced to alter their routes to avoid attacks on their vessels. As a result, shipping via the Red Sea, which accounts for between 10 and 15 percent of all global trade, has declined by about 90 percent. The real world costs have been staggering, and include billions of additional dollars in costs on the part of international shippers, which have been passed on to consumers as higher prices on everything from foodstuffs to commodities. The Houthi campaign has also been ruinous for regional states that depend heavily on such trade. Egypt, for instance, is estimated to have lost $6 billion in much-needed revenue as a result of Houthi operations, which have deterred global shippers from transiting the Suez Canal. Washington's response to date has left a great deal to be desired. Back in December 2023, the Biden administration somewhat belatedly initiated Operation Prosperity Guardian, a multi-nation maritime coalition intended to counter Houthi-led attacks on Red Sea shipping. So far, though, Prosperity Guardian hasn't had much of an impact. Houthi attacks have continued more or less unabated, while international partners have been slow to come on board in meaningful fashion.

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America is often called a nation of problem-solvers. So it's not surprising that, virtually from the start of Israel's war with Hamas last fall, U.S. officials have been pressing Israel to lay out a plan for a "day after" in the Gaza Strip. Those calls have intensified since Israel's mid-October killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. President Biden used the occasion to congratulate Israel for achieving justice and to press for a near-term political solution. "There is now the opportunity for a 'day after' in Gaza without Hamas in power, and for a political settlement that provides a better future for Israelis and Palestinians alike," Mr. Biden declared on Oct. 17. The "day after," though, is the wrong way to think about Gaza and the future of Israeli-Palestinian relations. Rather, we need to do so in generational terms. Two decades from now, whatever its political status, the territory should be politically moderate, prosperous and developed. The question is how to get there.

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What a difference a few weeks can make. As recently as this summer, the world seemed to be going Iran's way. The campaign of terror carried out by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, succeeded in denting Israel's aura of military invincibility, while the resulting conflict in Gaza helped isolate Jerusalem on the world stage. Israel's normalization with the Gulf States, which had started to profoundly marginalize the Islamic Republic, also seemed to be a casualty of the new war. Meanwhile, timid American regional policy, and the Biden administration's overriding fear of a wider Mideast war, led to a persistent failure on Washington's part to hold Tehran accountable for its regional troublemaking. Unsurprisingly, Iran's leaders had begun to make big plans. Their regime was advancing in Latin America, where weak regimes and leftist politics provided ample opportunities for Tehran to expand its influence and stoke anti-Americanism. Iran was insinuating itself into Africa, building ties to substate actors like the Polisario Front, and working to expand military contacts with war-torn Sudan. Officials in Tehran even announced plans to stake a claim to the South Pole. But that was before Israel opened a "northern front" against Iran's principal terror proxy, Hezbollah, earlier this fall. That effort has proven remarkably successful; in a stunningly short period of time, it has crippled or killed thousands of the militia's high- and mid-level operatives, destroyed most of its stockpiles of short- and medium-range rockets, and eliminated the group's longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

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All eyes are now on next week's highly-anticipated, and hotly contested, national election. In recent days, we've witnessed a flurry of media reports about how malign actors like Russia, China and Iran are seeking to shape U.S. political discourse ahead of that pivotal vote. But what might happen after Americans go to the polls on November 5th? According to the U.S. intelligence community, we should be prepared for more of the same.

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In September 2022, Iranians from all walks of life took to the streets against the ruling clerical regime. The immediate cause was the brutal death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini at the hands of regime security forces for the crime of improperly wearing her Islamic headscarf or hijab. The grassroots protests quickly transformed into something else: a fundamental rejection of the Islamic Republic's system of government. And as the protests continued into Spring 2023, hopes rose in the West that they might, at long last, coalesce into a real challenge to the country's 44 years of clerical rule. Today the promise of the "woman, life, freedom" movement has dissipated. The Iranian regime regained the upper hand sufficiently to relaunch a war on women. In recent months, Iranian authorities unveiled a new plan to ensure female dress complies with religious edicts. The country's morality police now exhibit a stronger presence around Tehran's central districts, full of police patrols, morality vans and police motorcycle patrols. Businesses found not to be enforcing the country's mandate of compulsory hijab risk getting shut down, while individuals not in compliance receive warnings and could face legal action. The oppressive status quo is unlikely to change. Although Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian campaigned on a platform that included a relaxation of the country's morality code, authorities tightened restrictions after his election in July 2024. They also launched a three phase scheme said to involve the training of some 1,500 "missionaries" to proselytize a "culture of chastity and hijab" in schools and education centers around the country. A particular focus of the new effort appears to be the country's youth, a demographic which has proven itself particularly resistant to curbs on female dress. Nevertheless, the "woman, life, freedom" protests marked a fundamental alienation of Iran's population from its ruling regime. They also highlight a quickening in the pace of domestic unrest, instances of which have taken place with growing frequency since the late 1990s. As a result, Iran will face another cycle of anti-regime activity, and likely sooner rather than later. In turn, those future protests may succeed in catalyzing fundamental political change within the Islamic Republic.

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